Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Deal on Rare Earth Minerals
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this «preliminary» agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to «recoup their money» from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an «investment fund» to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal mentioned that the fund would be overseen «equally» by both countries. According to the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its prospective earnings from publicly owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The generated funds would be directed towards projects designed to bolster Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Contentions Regarding Mineral Access and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and leader of the Kyiv School of Economics, claimed that Washington initially suggested a setup that would have jeopardized Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic failure. However, he observed that the US has since adjusted its position, now proposing a more equitable agreement centered on co-ownership, with no direct claims related to previous aid. He suggested that this could potentially be advantageous for Ukraine.
Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.
«I sought a clause concerning security guarantees for Ukraine as it is vital,» Zelensky remarked.
When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: «I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.»
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky maintained that Ukraine would not finalize the agreement until he and Trump reached an understanding on security assurances and determined how to integrate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, however, downplayed the idea of direct US security guarantees, stating that such responsibilities should now be shouldered by Europe. He added that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would offer «automatic security.»
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to give the US a concrete reason to keep backing Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for access to minerals, Ukraine would obtain the «right to continue fighting,» with the US continuing to provide military gear and ammunition «until an agreement with Russia is achieved.»
The US president has additionally asserted that Russia is willing to permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this option.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against «risking World War Three.»
«You have to finalize a deal, or we’re withdrawing,» Trump allegedly warned Zelensky. «You lack the leverage.»
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be «no compromises» with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having «disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office» and declaring: «He can return when he is prepared for peace.»
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s «critical raw materials.» This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts considerable deposits of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it possesses large reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals vital for military tech, wind turbines, and electronic devices—although the precise extent of these reserves is contested by some experts.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
There is also the issue of time. Even if the agreement is finalized, it could take years before the extraction and export of these resources yield tangible economic benefits.
«These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,» explained Mylovanov. «Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.»
What Has Been Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to «provide» mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s «new territories»—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia «certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.»
«Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,» he added.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: «We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.»
