US economic performance remains strong

During the last quarter of 2024, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This expansion was below the expected 2.6% and represented a slowdown from the 3.1% increase seen in the previous quarter.

Main Factors Contributing to Economic Expansion

Growth in the last quarter was mainly propelled by rises in consumer expenditures and government spending. Household consumption, a crucial part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stayed strong, indicating ongoing consumer activity. Government expenses also played a positive role, with significant growth in federal and state spending.

The fourth-quarter growth was primarily driven by increases in consumer spending and government expenditures. Consumer spending, a significant component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), remained robust, reflecting sustained household consumption. Government spending also contributed positively, with notable increases in both federal and state expenditures.

Comparative Analysis with Previous Quarters

Elements Leading to the Deceleration

Numerous factors played a role in the tempered growth seen in the fourth quarter:

  • Reducción de Inversiones: Hubo una caída en las actividades de inversión, lo que compensó en parte las ganancias del gasto de los consumidores y del gobierno.
  • Dinámicas Comerciales: Las importaciones disminuyeron en este período, lo cual, aunque resta en el cálculo del PIB, sugiere cambios potenciales en la demanda interna y ajustes en la cadena de suministro global.

Presiones Inflacionarias e Implicaciones Políticas

La inflación persistente sigue siendo motivo de preocupación, con el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) subiendo a 2.9% en diciembre de 2024. Este aumento en la inflación ha llevado a los economistas a modificar sus pronósticos, esperando que las presiones sobre los precios continúen el próximo año. La Reserva Federal se enfrenta al desafío de equilibrar los esfuerzos para controlar la inflación sin frenar el crecimiento económico.

Summary of the Labor Market

A pesar de preocupaciones previas, el mercado laboral mostró resistencia, con la tasa de desempleo bajando a 4.1% en diciembre de 2024. No obstante, las proyecciones indican un leve aumento en el desempleo para finales de 2025, reflejando posibles ajustes en el mercado laboral mientras la economía enfrenta desafíos continuos.

Prospects for 2025

Observing the future, the economic forecast for 2025 offers a varied scenario:

Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture:

  • Growth Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a moderation in economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2024.
  • cbo.gov
  • Inflation Expectations: Economists anticipate that inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, influenced by factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.
  • reuters.com
  • Policy Considerations: Proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies could exert additional inflationary pressures and impact labor market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring and policy adjustments. 
By Daniela Fermín

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